Congressional Researcher Surprised by Consistent Pentagon Assessment on Iran's Defensive Military Doctrine

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (left) and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on February 16, 2012.
(Photo Credit: Michael Reynolds / European Pressphoto Agency)

A classified Defense Department assessment on Iranian military posture and capabilities, delivered to Congress early in July and obtained by Bloomberg News, reportedly concluded that the Islamic Republic of Iran maintains a defensive military doctrine, rather than an aggressive one:

"Iran's military strategy is defensive" and designed to "deter an attack, survive an initial strike, retaliate against an aggressor and force a diplomatic solution" while avoiding major concessions, says the unclassified executive summary of a congressionally mandated Pentagon report submitted to lawmakers on July 7.

The report also acknowledges a change in rhetoric and messaging since the election and inauguration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, known as a pragmatic politician intent on lifting sanctions and normalizing Iran's nuclear file after years of unfounded allegations by Western nations and Israel.

The Bloomberg article is unremarkable, despite its reliance on a classified government document, except for one section, one that quotes a well-regarded researcher:

Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst for the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said in an e-mail that the Pentagon's previous Iran reports "have been consistently suspicious and assuming the worst in Iran's intentions and capabilities."

"This assessment is more nuanced, giving Iran some credit for adjusting its approach so as to minimize international suspicions," he said.

Katzman said he was struck by the Pentagon's characterization of Iran's military doctrine as defensive.

"I have never seen DoD or any U.S. agency come down so sharply on" whether Iran is "defensive or aggressive."

"This definitely has a much different and more benign tone that the preceding reports did," Katzman said.

While such comments are certainly welcome and seldom heard, Katzman's surprise at the assessment is curious considering the conclusions reached in the report (at least those revealed in the executive summary) are not new, nor particularly secret.

Kenneth Katzman

While under the George W. Bush administration, assessments were often more negative, as someone who follows this issue extremely closely, it makes no sense that Katzman "was struck by the Pentagon's characterization of Iran's military doctrine as defensive," when that precise posture has been affirmed by U.S. government reports for years now.

For instance, on February 27, 2008, the then-director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, addressed the Senate Armed Services Committee on the "Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States." His declassified assessment held that "Iran's military is designed principally to defend against external threats from larger, more modern adversaries such as the United States..." Maples repeated this exact finding before the same committee a year later on March 10, 2009.

On April 14, 2010, Maples' successor as DIA chief, Lieutenant General Ronald L. Burgess, Jr., told the very same committee that the "Iranian leadership pursues a security strategy intended to deter an attack on its territory" and that "Iran's military strategy is designed to defend against external threats, particularly from the United States and Israel. Its principles of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation, and attrition warfare."

Burgess also noted that "[w]hile it is unlikely to initiate a conflict intentionally or launch a pre-emptive attack, Iran uses its military forces to defend against both external and internal threats."

That very same month - April 2010 - the Defense Department, in accordance with a "Congressionally Directed Action (CDA)" reported on the "Military Power of Iran." The Pentagon determined that "Iran's security strategy is based first on deterring an attack" and that "Iran's military strategy is designed to defend against external or 'hard' threats from the United States and Israel. Iran's principles of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation, and attrition warfare."

In a section explicitly addressing "Iran's Military Doctrine," the Pentagon report stated:

Iran's perception of threats and defensive military doctrine, which is designed to slow an invasion and force a diplomatic solution to hostilities. Iranian military training and public statements echo this defensive doctrine of delay and attrition.

In February 2011, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper declared that Iran was "strengthening its deterrent capability against threats from the United States and Israel" in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee and noted the Iranian "strategy to deter" in remarks the next month before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

General Burgess, in the same committee hearing on March 10, 2011, said that the DIA could confidently "assess Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict or launch a preemptive attack."

Identical assessments were delivered by both Clapper and Burgess in 2012 and then by Clapper and new DIA head Lieutenant General Michael Flynn in 2013.

Why Katzman thinks the latest assessment, reported by Bloomberg, is a huge change in American intelligence and defense reporting is anyone's guess. One would hope an analyst responsible for delivering reports to Congress would know better.

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